Unearthed today: What Biden means for the climate
Hello!
It’s hard to imagine the future until you’re in it. So – let’s get straight to the point. What does a Biden victory – but a (likely) Republican Senate mean for action on climate and biodiversity?
There’s some good reading out there. Check out this from Biden – on his plan, the New York Times, NPR, Bloomberg and this great Twitter thread from Micahel Grunwald and the Sanders/AOC list of what can be done without congress. That should see you read in.
Yes. There is some stuff that Biden can’t do so easily. It will be hard to pass specific climate legislation tying the U.S. to achieving key targets with spending to deliver on those ambitions – like hitting zero emissions by 2035 from power. There are legal limitations too – from the Republican-dominated Supreme court. Obama’s Clean Power Plan was always limited – and is probably legally not long for this world. With the new court appointees, executive action isn’t quite the tool it was.
But there is also a quite dizzying amount he can do. Which doesn’t mean he will. I’ve tried – and failed – to get my head around it. Here’s a scatter-gun of stuff.
1) He can change the structure of government through appointments and the creation of climate agencies. This sounds dull and bureaucratic – but it’s really not. Transitioning a massive resource and fossil-fuel dependent economy is an epic undertaking. There is no single list of policies. How each one works depends on what else is being done. A new White House agency – or climate office – could coordinate actions by every other part of the government influencing how rules are set. We tend to focus on the EPA – for example – but Biden could also use The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission the Federal Regulatory to change the rules for the financial sector whilst – Bloomberg notes – the little known Federal Energy Regulatory Commission sets important guidelines around policy support for zero-carbon energy source.
2) Which means executive action is still a thing. To start off with – he can reverse the more than 100 measures Trump took to weaken environmental regulation and block the fossil fuel projects Trump allowed. “The Keystone pipeline dies. So do the Trump plans to log the Tongass Forest and drill in the Arctic refuge. Methane rules probably get reinstated fast,” Grunwald noted. Beyond that expect significant new rules on efficiency to drive electrification for cars and heating, limits on leasing for new oil and gas rights in federal lands to limit extraction and higher emissions standards for the electricity sector to push renewable energy.
“Biden has said he would stop leasing any new oil and gas rights on federal land and water. He could also direct agencies to tighten emissions standards for the electricity sector, to push it toward his goal of net zero emissions by 2035. And he could raise fuel economy standards for cars and trucks to speed up a transition to electric vehicles,” NPR and others report.
3) Executive action will allow him to restore and protect biodiversity. Mr Biden has pledged to take “immediate steps to reverse the Trump assault on America’s national treasures” including major cuts in 2017 to Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments, as well as opening parts of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration. He has said on the first day of his administration he will sign an executive order to conserve 30 per cent of United States land and waters by 2030, the NYT reports. Alongside that, he could tighten rules on chemicals and pesticides, ban single-use plastics on public lands and change how they are grazed.,
4) He can direct spending- through economic stimulus and budgetary negotiations with congress, creating millions of jobs in the process. Support for the car industry and power sector may come with regulatory strings attached which many in those sectors may welcome – if it provides some kind of stability. Elsewhere he’s likely to force through money for research and development funding for clean energy – especially things like storage technology and carbon capture – alongside money for states to continue their renewable energy expansion, and an extension of tax credits for renewable energy industries alongside potential funding for home efficiency or plugging new oil wells – both big sources of employment. How to pay for it? Expect a possible new carbon tax down the line.
5) Together these powers allow him to focus on climate and environmental justice by directing where and how money is spent and by – according to the NYT – creating “an environmental justice advisory board to coordinate policies across agencies and take concrete steps like increasing pollution monitoring in vulnerable communities and creating mapping tools to better understand disparities.”
6) Internationally, everything is changed. This is the biggest thing but it only really matters if he can do the other things (to show he is a credible actor) so that’s why it’s way down here. Biden rejoins the Paris agreement (and the World Health Organisation) and kicks off a summit in the U.S. on climate action. In so doing he starts a competition between world powers over climate ambition, especially acute between the U.S. and China. There’s a stick to that as well. Biden could use aid and trade policy to switch where U.S. money goes and support economies which avoid deforestation or cut emissions.
7) He can go further. As Trump demonstrated – the rules around the presidency are not as set in stone as some imagined. Biden carries huge public support for his policies on climate change. Some polls, for example, show support for declaring a National Emergency as Trump did with border security. I’m not saying that’s a great idea. But here’s a great article on what that could mean. “After declaring an emergency, the president could provide loan guarantees to critical industries in order to help finance goals such as expanding renewable energy production. Oil and gas leases on federal lands and in federal waters contain clauses that allow the Interior Department to suspend them during national emergencies. Declaring a national emergency would also enable the president to limit U.S. oil exports to other countries.”